La prochaine séance du séminaire “doctorants du CEPN” se déroulera ce vendredi 14 juin de 12h30 à 13h30 en salle K301 (UFR SEG, campus de Villetaneuse).

Nicolas Himounet fera une présentation intitulée “Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really ?”.

Vous trouverez ci-dessous le résumé de sa présentation.

Abstract: A growing empirical literature on how to measure uncertainty has emerged following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Using a principal component analysis that includes the various measures of uncertainty provided by the literature, we develop a monthly global measure of uncertainty for the United States on the period 1990-2015 and we determine the factors explaining fluctuations in uncertainty. We investigate the impact of uncertainty shocks using local projection methods and our general measure of uncertainty. We find a significant negative impact of our general measure on economic activity. However, we find a significant positive impact on industrial production and employment when we use a mix between our general measure of uncertainty and macroeconomic uncertainty related to technology (the second factor of our PCA). Results are robust using a Structural VAR.

Des sandwichs, salades, fruits et bouteilles d’eau seront à votre disposition.

Vous pouvez retrouver le programme du séminaire ici.

En espérant vous voir nombreux.

L’équipe organisatrice du séminaire doctorants CEPN.