Working Paper n°2019-02 – Coupling Cycle Mechanisms: Minsky debt cycles and the Multiplier-Accelerator – S. Devrim Yilmaz & Engelbert Stockhammer

While there exists a substantial literature on different business cycle mechanisms, there is little literature on economies with more than one business cycle mechanism operating and the relation of stability of these subsystems with the stability of the aggregate system. We construct a model where a multiplier-accelerator subsystem in output-investment space (a real cycle) and a Minskyian subsystem in investment- debt space (a financial cycle) can generate stable/unstable cycles in 2D in isolation. We then derive a theorem …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2019-01 – Degrowth in a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution? A theoretical compatibility and stability analysis – Antoine Monserand

Situated at the interface between post-Keynesian and ecological economics, this article investigates the theoretical possibilities for a degrowth transition to take place while preserving macroeconomic stability. More precisely, the objective is to find whether in a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution an equilibrium with a zero or even negative rate of accumulation can coexist with the Keynesian stability condition being verified. Our results are threefold. First, we confirm that adding the rate of depreciation to the canonical …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-13 – What’s gone wrong in the design of PAYG systems? – Riccardo Magnani (CEPN)

In order to face the population ageing problem, most countries with PAYG systems introduced pension reforms during the last twenty years. However, in many cases these reforms are considered as insufficient to guarantee the pension sustainability; in other cases, the pension sustainability is achieved through the introduction of drastic reforms and, thus, at the expense of a dramatic reduction in the well-being of current and future generations. The objective of this article is to show that the non-sustainability …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-12 – Dématérialiser la nature pour la faire entrer dans la sphère du marché – Hélène Tordjman (CEPN)

Cela fait longtemps que la nature est entrée dans le processus capitaliste dans ses dimensions matérielles, terre, ressources agricoles et minières, sous la forme de biens tangibles donc. Depuis quelques décennies, un phénomène nouveau apparaît. Des dimensions de la nature sont requalifiées en information, en services et en actifs financiers pour pouvoir à leur tour faire l’objet d’échanges marchands. Autrement dit une nouvelle classe de marchandises fictives apparaît (Karl Polanyi (1944)). Plutôt que de les nommer « immatérielles …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-11 – Heterogeneity, distribution and financial fragility of non-financial firms: an agent-based stock-flow consistent (AB-SFC) model – Italo Pedrosa (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) et Dany Lang (CEPN)

In Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), financial fragility of non-financial firms tends to increase endogenously over the cycle along with the macroeconomic leverage ratio. This analysis has been criticized for two main complementary reasons: firstly, it does not duly consider the aggregate pro-cyclicallity of profits; secondly, due to an overly aggregate analysis, some inferences about the relation between aggregate leverage and systemic fragility are potentially misleading. In this paper, we take these criticisms into account by building an …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-10 – Comment Israël a évité l’hyperinflation ? Le succès du plan de stabilisation (1985) à la lumière de la théorie post-keynésienne – Jonathan Marie (CEPN) et Sébastien Charles (LEDA)

Adoptant un cadre post-keynésien, l’article analyse le processus inflationniste à l’œuvre de 1948 jusqu’aux années 1980 pour, d’une part, comprendre les origines de la quasi hyperinflation du 1er semestre 1985 et, d’autre part, saisir la réussite du plan de stabilisation intervenu lors de l’été de cette même année.
En 1985 le shekel semble devoir être complètement rejeté par ses utilisateurs au profit du dollar, ce qui, dans le contexte fortement inflationniste d’alors, aurait dû engendrer une hyperinflation. Ce résultat …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-09 – Does Output Influence Productivity? A Meta-Regression Analysis – Ludwig List (CEPN)

The goal of this paper is to conduct a meta-regression analysis (MRA hereafter) regarding the effects of the Kaldor-Verdoorn effect – the relation between output/demand and productivity. The Kaldor-Verdoorn effect has been subject to many econometric studies and while the overwhelming majority of them finds a positive overall effect, there is no consensus on its size – the results vary quite a bit, especially according to the chosen econometric specification.

This MRA estimates a ‘true value’ of …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-08 – Analyse scientométrique de la crise économique – Abdelghani Maddi (CEPN)

En s’appuyant sur les techniques de cartographie, en se basant sur l’analyse textuelle et l’analyse des réseaux de citations nous avons analysé le développement de la thématique de la crise économique. L’objectif est de montrer dans un premier temps les courants de pensée et les auteurs influents. Dans un second temps comprendre son évolution à travers le temps.
Pour ce faire, nous avons extrait de l’interface du WOS en ligne l’ensemble des publications contenant le mot « crisis » …[Lire la suite]