Working Paper n°2019-05 – Least Impulse Response Estimator for Stress Test Exercises – Christian Gouriéroux and Yang Lu

We introduce new semi-parametric models for the analysis of rates and proportions, such as proportions of default, (expected) loss-given-default and credit conversion factor encountered in credit risk analysis. These models are especially convenient for the stress test exercises demanded in the current prudential regulation. We show that the Least Impulse Response Estimator, which minimizes the estimated effect of a stress, leads to consistent parameter estimates. The new models with their associated estimation method are compared with the other …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2019-04 – Une analyse de la nature de l’investissement immatériel par le rapport capital / travail – Alexis Jeamet

Cet article propose de revisiter le concept d’investissement immatériel en posant la question de la nature de celui-ci. Ce travail d’inspiration marxienne analysera la transformation de la nature de l’investissement immatériel en partant des transformations du rapport capital / travail. À partir des modifications de ce rapport identifiées grâce à la notion de subsomption du travail au capital, nous chercherons à appréhender la nature de l’investissement immatériel au travers du rapport actifs / ressources immatérielles. L’identification de ces …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2019-03 – A theory of predatory welfare state and citizen welfare: the french case – Philippe Batifoulier, Nicolas Da Silva, and Mehrdad Vahabi

In this paper, we argue that the welfare state is an outcome of modern mass (total) warfare. The total war economy requires the participation of all citizens, erasing the difference between the military and citizens. Consequently, the war economy benefits from supporting the civilian population. The total war effect explains why a predatory state undertakes welfare programs. This is one of the contributions of the present paper.

While welfare state is closely related to total warfare, social …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2019-02 – Coupling Cycle Mechanisms: Minsky debt cycles and the Multiplier-Accelerator – S. Devrim Yilmaz & Engelbert Stockhammer

While there exists a substantial literature on different business cycle mechanisms, there is little literature on economies with more than one business cycle mechanism operating and the relation of stability of these subsystems with the stability of the aggregate system. We construct a model where a multiplier-accelerator subsystem in output-investment space (a real cycle) and a Minskyian subsystem in investment- debt space (a financial cycle) can generate stable/unstable cycles in 2D in isolation. We then derive a theorem …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2019-01 – Degrowth in a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution? A theoretical compatibility and stability analysis – Antoine Monserand

Situated at the interface between post-Keynesian and ecological economics, this article investigates the theoretical possibilities for a degrowth transition to take place while preserving macroeconomic stability. More precisely, the objective is to find whether in a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution an equilibrium with a zero or even negative rate of accumulation can coexist with the Keynesian stability condition being verified. Our results are threefold. First, we confirm that adding the rate of depreciation to the canonical …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-13 – What’s gone wrong in the design of PAYG systems? – Riccardo Magnani (CEPN)

In order to face the population ageing problem, most countries with PAYG systems introduced pension reforms during the last twenty years. However, in many cases these reforms are considered as insufficient to guarantee the pension sustainability; in other cases, the pension sustainability is achieved through the introduction of drastic reforms and, thus, at the expense of a dramatic reduction in the well-being of current and future generations. The objective of this article is to show that the non-sustainability …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-12 – Dématérialiser la nature pour la faire entrer dans la sphère du marché – Hélène Tordjman (CEPN)

Cela fait longtemps que la nature est entrée dans le processus capitaliste dans ses dimensions matérielles, terre, ressources agricoles et minières, sous la forme de biens tangibles donc. Depuis quelques décennies, un phénomène nouveau apparaît. Des dimensions de la nature sont requalifiées en information, en services et en actifs financiers pour pouvoir à leur tour faire l’objet d’échanges marchands. Autrement dit une nouvelle classe de marchandises fictives apparaît (Karl Polanyi (1944)). Plutôt que de les nommer « immatérielles …[Lire la suite]

Working Paper n°2018-11 – Heterogeneity, distribution and financial fragility of non-financial firms: an agent-based stock-flow consistent (AB-SFC) model – Italo Pedrosa (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) et Dany Lang (CEPN)

In Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), financial fragility of non-financial firms tends to increase endogenously over the cycle along with the macroeconomic leverage ratio. This analysis has been criticized for two main complementary reasons: firstly, it does not duly consider the aggregate pro-cyclicallity of profits; secondly, due to an overly aggregate analysis, some inferences about the relation between aggregate leverage and systemic fragility are potentially misleading. In this paper, we take these criticisms into account by building an …[Lire la suite]